A golfer will typically select a golf shot by selecting a golf club type and a line of aim. Most golfers will make such a selection based on their general ideas regarding how they perform with different golf club types, including how far they can hit a golf ball with those golf club types and what direction the golf ball's trajectory tends to follow when they aim in a particular direction with those golf club types. For example, a golfer may know that he can hit a golf ball using a given golf club type about 150 yards. The golfer may also apply rough heuristics to determine how far he can hit the golf ball using other golf club types—for example, by subtracting 10 yards for each consecutive iron golf club. However, golfers do not know their true, statistically-informed capabilities regarding how far the golfer can hit with each of the golf club types.
Similarly, golfers may have general ideas on the direction that a golf ball travels when the golfer uses a given golf club type. Rarely will a shot end up at its “visualized” location, e.g., 240 yards at the left-center of the fairway. However, golfers do not know the true, statistically-informed direction in which the golfer's golf shots typically travel.
Moreover, a golfer may not take into account the variance in the distance that he can achieve when hitting with different golf club types. While the golfer may believe he can hit a golf ball about 150 yards using a particular golf club type on average, this does not take into account whether the golfer consistently achieves about 150 yards on the one hand, or whether the golfer often undershoots and/or overshoots this distance by large amounts. Similarly, a golfer may not take into account the variance in the direction with which the golfer's shots typically travel.
Golfers sometimes rely on a caddie to analyze the course, the circumstances of the golfer's specific shot at hand, and the player's abilities with different golf club types in order to make a recommendation of a golf club type and line of aim for the player. The caddie may scout out the course before a tournament so that a course management plan can be developed for each of the holes, starting at the tee box at each hole. But even a caddie will generally not have precise and statistically-informed information about a golfer's capabilities.
Moreover, a decision for a particular shot should not just take into account the potential result of the current shot at hand, but should also consider subsequent shots such that the golfer selects a shot that will result in the lowest probable score for the entire hole. This is sometimes known as “Course Management,” and is an important factor for a player to achieve the lowest possible score on any given course. This is why professional golfers sometimes select seemingly unconventional golf shots, such as using a fairway wood or an iron off the tee on long holes. But without the knowledge of probable outcomes of a golf shot with a given club and line of aim, the golfer may make sub-optimal decisions. These judgment errors will add strokes to the player's score in every round he plays.
There are numerous possible outcomes for a given shot at hand using a given golf club type, and each one of those possible outcomes gives rise to its own set of possible subsequent outcomes depending on how the golfer performs on subsequent shots. In order to identify a statistically-preferred golf shot, one should take into account these possible outcomes and their respective likelihoods. The number of possible outcomes and the computational complexity of identifying statistically-preferred golf shots based on their likelihoods is beyond the ability of most golfers, even if they had access to relevant statistics based upon which such computations could be performed.
Thus, to achieve the lowest statistically probable score for a hole, it is important for a golfer to know his statistical capabilities for each of his golf club types and to understand how a current golf shot selection can impact the score he can expect to achieve for the entire hole. Most golfers, however, do not have such information.
Accordingly, there is a need for improved systems, components, and methodologies to aid the selection of a golf shot by a golfer.